“The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is.

Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive incapacity, on the part of those with low ability, to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately.

Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.”

Source: Wikipedia page on the Dunning-Kruger effect

I used to think that confidence was linked closely to the amount we know – that the more we knew, the more confident we should be in projecting our opinions. And that in areas we had little knowledge, we should be less confident in projecting our opinions.

But that’s a silly attitude. Confidence describes the manner in which we project ourselves, rather than the faith we have in the content of our ideas. We should be projecting our opinions with conviction, but then being open to hearing other perspectives or data that run counter to our ideas.

There’s a strange paradox here that the more we know, the more we find out we don’t know…

“The problem with the world is that intelligent people are full of doubt, while the stupid people are full of confidence.”

Source: unknown, or made up

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